By: Najee Quashie
Reporting from Massachusetts

As Donald Trump takes office on January 20th, we examine his proposed policies for farmers, their impact on agriculture, and how they compare to the Biden administration’s approach.

Disclaimer: This newsletter serves as a neutral voice and offers unbiased, general information on the Trump administration’s agricultural policies.

Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This chart represents the percentage breakdown of the Farm Bill passed in 2018. The overall cost was estimated to be $867 billion. Since then, the nutrition category has increased by about 3.9%.

What happens if nothing gets passed?

If Congress does not pass an updated Farm Bill or a one-year extension before 2025, key organic programs will lapse. These include:

• The Organic Certification Cost Share Program – Helps organic farmers and businesses afford the cost of getting certified organic. With more farms becoming certified and expenses rising, last year’s funding of $8 million isn’t enough. Congress must provide at least $11 million to keep this program running in the Farm Bill extension or through emergency funding.
• The Organic Data Initiative – Gathers essential data to help support and grow organic farming.
• The Organic Certification Trade and Tracking Program – Helps the USDA enforce organic rules and stop fraud in organic products.

Immigration Policies and Labor Shortages

Imagine the population of Massachusetts. Then add 3.999 million. You get 11 million people. That is the number of unauthorized immigrants Donald Trump vows to deport once he gets into office.

If Mr. Trump follows through with this plan, it could have a massive impact on the agricultural industry, states’ economies, and labor. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), unauthorized immigrants comprise roughly 42% of hired crop farmworkers. The plan would affect the meatpacking, dairy farm, poultry, and livestock industries the most.

Farm owners typically hire unauthorized immigrants because certain aspects of farming are arduous, causing labor shortages. Owners can pay unauthorized immigrants less than US-born employees and may not offer benefits. So, while there may be a labor shortage of US-born workers, there is a steady flow of unauthorized immigrants.

The H-2A Temporary Agricultural Program (H-2A), allowing foreign-born people to work legally in the United States (US), could provide a legal loophole for unauthorized immigrants and stave off massive labor shortages. However, the program operates on a seasonal basis and cuts off after 10 months per person. The good thing about this program is that foreign-born people are paid the state’s minimum wage, and their employers provide housing and transportation. However, some farm owners criticize the program’s temporary employment because of the need to maintain farm work 24/7, 365 days a year. The other issue with H-2A is that out of the 11 million unauthorized immigrants, many have been living, working, and paying taxes in the US for some time. So, H-2A would only cover a small portion of farmworkers.

Mr. Trump has also vowed to end the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, a law that helps people who cannot return safely to their country often due to war or a natural disaster. Those in the program cannot be deported and are eligible for employment and travel authorization. About 1.2 million people in the US use or qualify for the TPS program. For many, the program is permanent as their lives dramatically shift, and they live and work in the US. This makes TPS attractive to employers because, unlike H-2A, foreign-born workers do not have to leave after 10 months.

From an economic standpoint, Mr. Trump’s proposal could hurt the US economy if there is a labor shortage. According to the USDA, the agricultural sector and related industries contribute $1.5 trillion to the US gross domestic product (GDP), or 5.5%. Meanwhile, in Massachusetts, agriculture contributes to half a billion dollars or 1% of the state’s GDP. A mass deportation plan could cause declines in GDP, force the US to import many of its goods, and cause prices to skyrocket because of the limited goods available.

For dairy farms, unauthorized immigrants comprise 51% of the workforce, contributing to 79% of the US milk supply. The National Milk Producers Federation argues that if this workforce is lost, it could increase milk prices by 90% and cost the total economy more than $32 billion.

In other words, without unauthorized immigrants, the dairy industry may cease to exist.

Trade Policies and Market Access

Mr. Trump says tariff may be his favorite word. His plan includes a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, China will face a 60% tariff on its goods, with Mr. Trump recently saying he would impose an additional 10% on top. He also said he would impose 10-20% tariffs on goods worldwide.

A tariff is a tax on goods imported or exported into or out of a country. In the US, the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the president to increase import tariffs that pose a national security threat without congressional approval. In 2018, Mr. Trump used this law to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Graphic from Napkin Finance of what tariffs are and who it affects.

In Massachusetts, China is its second-largest export market, totaling $3.3 billion. Canada is third at $3.3 billion, and Mexico is fourth at $2.7 billion. If Mr. Trump carries through with his tariff plan, it could affect the import market and these countries’ willingness to buy goods at the agreed-upon export prices. Tariffs work both ways, and any tariff Mr. Trump imposes, one could expect other countries to impose their own tariffs as well. Additionally, countries may opt to forge new trade agreements with different partners. For example, the European Union (EU) negotiated a trade agreement with four South American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. While this agreement was long-planned, the EU felt an urgency to get a deal done before Mr. Trump came into office. New trade agreements can decrease reliance on a single entity like the US.

Tariffs can lead to significant financial export losses, such as the one Mr. Trump imposed on steel and aluminum in 2018. The USDA’s Economic Research Service estimates that the US had over $27 billion in export losses between mid-2018 and 2019. The most affected commodities were soybeans, sorghum, pork, and cotton. Massachusetts was not affected, but nearby northeastern states such as Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, and New Jersey were.

The Market Facilitation Program, a USDA-funded program that provided direct payments to farmers affected by foreign trade retaliations, offset such losses. An estimated $23 billion was given to eligible farmers. The program is expired but could be renewed by the USDA if Mr. Trump follows through with his tariff proposal.

History shows that Mr. Trump can follow through on a tariff proposal, but the question is how his administration will balance hurting trading partners while protecting farmers and everyday Americans.

The Biden Administration

The outgoing President, Joe Biden, has had a different vision for US farmworkers and the agricultural industry. His administration has focused on cutting greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector by 50% by 2030. This was followed up with $1 billion in funding to help farmers transition to practices such as no-till farming, crop rotation, carbon capture and storage, manure management, and rotational grazing. Through the Justice 40 Initiative, the Biden administration emphasized the inclusion of disadvantaged communities, ensuring they would not be left out.

Republicans oppose Mr. Biden’s view of climate change as an existential threat. House of Representatives Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson wants to reallocate climate-smart funding from the Inflation Reduction Act to conservation programs. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump views climate-smart funding as a driver of inflation, dubbing it the “Green New Scam.”

Regarding immigration, Mr. Biden expanded the TPS program to 16 countries, which has led to about 1.2 million people being given authorization to work in the US. This policy was implemented to address the crises in the 16 countries and allow foreign-born nationals to fill the labor shortages that the agricultural industry had experienced. Additionally, under the H-2A program, the Biden administration has strengthened protections for unauthorized immigrants, ensuring employers do not exploit vulnerable individuals or abuse them.

These expansions have been linked to the strain communities have recently faced regarding social services. In Springfield, Ohio, Haitian residents who have come to the US through TPS have been criticized for taking local jobs, consuming the city’s limited resources, and falsely accused of eating pets. In turn, Republicans have criticized Biden for not providing communities with funding to deal with the influx of unauthorized immigrants around the country.

Mr. Biden’s trade policies have focused on expanding market access for US farmworkers. For example, the Biden administration secured $26.7 billion in global agricultural market access for American farmers, ranchers, fishers, and food manufacturers. The policy led to lower tariffs in India on 10 US agricultural commodities, expanded access for US fresh potatoes to all of Mexico, and contributed to a record high of $196 billion in US agricultural exports in 2022.

That said, Mr. Biden has faced criticism for the decline in small farms and a perceived favoritism toward large agribusinesses.

Since 1930, the number of farms in the US has steadily declined. Small farms are especially at risk of closure due to lack of funding, labor shortages, and changing weather patterns. Despite the major influx of funding the Biden administration secured for the agricultural industry, there is criticism that not enough has gone to small farms. There is also concern that much of the money to cut greenhouse gas emissions will go to big farms because they are the largest polluters.

Agency Leaders and Their Roles

The ‘him’ Mr. Trump refers to is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK), the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) nominee. Before RFK Jr. can lead HHS, he must be confirmed by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. If confirmed, his nomination can be put forth to a majority vote in the Senate.

If RFK Jr. is confirmed, he plans to increase pesticide use regulations, which could impact crop protection methods and potentially increase production costs for farmers. He also wants to ban certain food additives like red dye no.3 and restrict ultra-processed foods like corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Red dye no. 3, a synthetic food coloring derived from petroleum, is commonly found in various foods, including candies, drinks, desserts, snacks, baking decorations, and processed foods like sausages and vegetarian meats.